Dutch economist (1903-1994) known for the development and application of dynamic models for the analysis of economic processes, who was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1969. Autograph manuscript of an essay entitled "How to Tackle the Energy Problem?," signed below the title, "Jan Tinbergen," six pages, 8.25 x 10.25, dated 1979. The piece outlines concerns about the balance of the production and consumption of energy, foresees the potential of a climate crisis, and suggests the vigorous acceleration of research programs as a tip priority. In his introductory remarks, he brings forth the important subject of climate change: "Alongside action directed at a straightforward reduction of energy scarcity, we have to undertake a vast amount of research as an indirect activity. An example of a far-fetched relation between day-to-day practice and research related to energy is the impact an increased use of energy probably will have on the world's climate. Several experts have pointed out that the process of burning increased quantities of fossil energy resources (coal, oil, wood) raises to content of wastes in the atmosphere, with at least two opposite consequences. One is that a larger part of the sun beams directed at the planet earth might be reflected and hence lower the temperature of the atmosphere. The other is that a 'greenhouse effect' might occur and keep a larger part of heat received around the earth. This would imply a rise in temperature. There is no certainty which of the two tendencies will be the strongest and so the way in which our climate would change is still under debate." In fine condition. Accompanied by the original mailing envelope, addressed by Tinbergen's hand and incorporating his signature, "J. Tinbergen," as part of the return address.
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